Research of the model for assessing the workload of passenger port infrastructure using decision-making models under uncertainty

The current situation formed by the changeable influence of external environment on interaction “sea passenger port — sea ferry/cruise company” systems has formulated new decision-making tasks under uncertainty to justify infrastructural changes. It is not enough for managers ports and terminals make decisions only basis deterministic models. Probabilistic nature processes predetermines need form models methods substantiate strategies development. problem field considered in paper topical because today due such trends as increase dimension cruise ferry vessels changes route networks it necessary solve development forecasting scenario modeling. Modeling should be performed digital transport models, which take into account peculiarities marine infrastructure, priority berths. model “Passenger Port St. Petersburg “Sea Façade”, developed author, used necessity single out separate states substantiated. validity singling a set boundary points, turning points future complex system or terminal, connected with presence bifurcation zones “ramification” possible ways evolution proved. proof proposed approach presented means allocation individual stages Petersburg. Based approach, management proposed. This assembly reflects temporary analytical data decrease number transition allows determine time A working making modernization infrastructure offered. On modeling, taking different distribution laws (gamma distribution, Poisson normal others) conditions formation “fields utility”, cones preference target functions are presented. For precise description faced head port, choice Savage criterion (S-criterion) substantiated mathematical criteria given. solution acceptable interval Dataset utility intensities lines work experiment, accuracy (modernization berths) results can applied other terminals, determines universality approach.